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FantasySP Blog – Page 2 – FantasySP Blog

Pick Up Free Agents Based on Projections

Just a few weeks ago, we introduced you to our Player Projections.  Today we are excited to announce league-wide player projections in the Fantasy Assistant.  Our projections will support NFL, NHL, NBA, and MLB fantasy leagues.  The best part is what you can do with our projections!

Our Projection model has gotten so good that you are now able to pick up free agents based on weekly or daily projections.

New Projections Area
New Projections Area

Our Projections area will feel a lot similar to our Waivers Research tool.  You can view projections based on position and then sort by “Free Agents”, “Entire League”, or “My Team”.

NBA Projections
NBA Projections

Projection categories can be customized to your fantasy league, so you only see the categories that matter to you.  Mouse Over the GP (Games Played) category to see that player’s full schedule for the week.

NHL Projections
NHL Projections
Projections NFL
NFL Projections

Baseball projections are not shown due to the off-season, but we offer them as well.

How to Use Projections

The biggest question is how you can use these projections to your advantage.  It’s important to look at the projections as a whole and compare where your player’s fit in across the entire league.  My quarterback is Tony Romo, and he is projected to be the 4th best this particular week, so I am certainly in good shape at the QB position.  If you are weak in the QB position, then sort by “Free Agents” to see which free agents are projected to have a better week than your player.

For fantasy football, you’d like to play the guy with the highest projected points for the week and has a good Trust Rating (75+).  It’s also important to look at their own/start percentages to see what other fantasy player’s are starting.

For example, right now Eli Manning has a low start percentage, but Odell Beckham is absolutely tearing up the league, so it’s no surprise that he has a great projection at home against the Eagles.

Hockey, Basketball, and Baseball

Using weekly or daily projections for the remaining fantasy sports can be extremely enlightening.  We are taking the guesswork out of how a player is likely to perform in a given day or week.

Most of these fantasy leagues tend to be category based rather than point based scoring, which means that how you perform across multiple categories is more important than overall fantasy points.

Tip #1.  Always look at scheduled games for the week.  Sometimes a player on your team will only have 2 games scheduled, whereas a free agent or bench player may have 4 games scheduled.  The player with the additional scheduled games may actually out perform your current slotted starter by looking at our projections.  Use this to your advantage and set your lineup accordingly.

Tip #2. Click on any category inside Projections to sort by it.  Categories mean everything in these fantasy leagues and it’s important to see what your player’s are projected to have in a category that you are struggling in.  If you see a free agent that’s better than your player, then read his latest news and decide if he’s worth the pickup.

Tip #3. Use Projections in conjunction with our Waiver research tool.  Our Waiver Research tool combines player performance with roster trends to show the best available free agents.  Research past performances and combine that with projections to get a better picture of players.

Tip #4. We offer Weekly Team Projections and Season Projections.  If you see that your weekly team projection is weak in specific categories, then alter your focus based on these projections.  If you are close in a category head-to-head matchup, then punt a specific category your are bad in and concentrate on winning a category you are good in.  Weekly Projections will show all of this for you.

Now get out there and win some fantasy games.  Still not a member of FantasySP?  SIGN UP!

2014 Winter Update

There has been a record number of improvements since the last time I made a blog post back in September.  I meant to write this post sooner, but things have been so busy that I was unable to find the time.

Here is the list of the biggest improvements since early September. Items that are bolded are significant updates.

  • Improved accuracy in Weekly Projections across all sports
  • NFL player ratings have been improved for the 2014 season.
  • Support for team kickers & team quarterbacks for various leagues
  • Waiver Research inside the Fantasy Assistant has been added for all sports
  • Various fixes for waiver alerts, including faster alerts and increased accuracy
  • Revised the layout for many tables
  • bug fixes for trade suggestions
  • Fixes for weird characters showing up when they aren’t supposed to
  • Weekly Schedule dropdowns added inside the fantasy assistant
  • NFL Schedules show where a team ranks against rush or pass
  • new player images added
  • Layout changes to Fantasy Assistant, its now wider
  • TRUST ratings added for all sports & to Start/Sit tool.
  • New NBA & NHL categories added for 2014/15 seasons
  • Customized scoring settings added for NBA & NHL
  • Trade Research Center has more detailed player information
  • Position Ratings added to Fantasy Assistant homepage for each team
  • Trust ratings and Own/Start percentages added to all waivers
  • Entire FantasySP website is now SSL enabled
  • All paying members have ads disabled for faster browsing
  • Advanced Player Projections added for all sports
  • Ability to set league as weekly lineups or daily lineups
  • Sync a league or delete a team inside the fantasy assistant

Advanced Player Projections

Not too long ago, we introduced you to Weekly Projections.  Today, we are building upon our projection engine and offering advanced Player Projections for every player on your team.  Player Projections are available for NBA, NFL, MLB, and NHL fantasy leagues inside the Fantasy Assistant.  We will offer daily player projections or weekly projections.

Let’s take a look at what the Player Projections look like and where to find them inside the Fantasy Assistant. After selecting your team, mouse over the blue projection icons under “My Roster”.

Here is what Jay Cutler’s Projections look like for Week 12 against a very weak Bucs defense.  I am hoping to see good things from both Cutler and Alshon Jeffery.

 

player-projections-nfl

 

Player Projections for NBA, NHL, and MLB leagues can be customized based on the categories that your league actually uses.  We automatically narrow down our projections to the current fantasy week.   Those of you in category based leagues will love the ability to compare players stats who are scheduled to play 2 games vs 4 games.

player-projections-nhl

Many of you also play in fantasy leagues where daily lineups can be set.  We also have you covered and offer the ability to change the setting to daily and see how those projections stack up.

player-projections-nba-2

 

(Sorry baseball fans, but no pictures to show you since it is currently in the offseason)

Tips & Tricks

There are a few tips that you should keep in mind when setting your lineups based on these projections.  First, our projections are updated daily, so you are guaranteed to have the latest projections.  Second, you see the Trust rating right next to each player projection?  Those numbers indicate the chances of a player meeting or exceeding fantasy expectations.

Let’s say for example, that you are planning to start Jay Cutler for Week 12.  His Trust rating is 82, so that means he has an 82% chance to meet or exceed his fantasy expectations for this week.  With a projection of 25 points against a weak Bucs defense and a high trust rating… what’s not to like?

Now what happens when you are in a bind to decide who to start?

There may be player’s with better projections for the week or day, but it’s critical to look at Trust ratings while looking at these projections.  A player with a good projection, but low trust rating is an extremely risky play.  Sometimes it may be best to start a player with lower point projections if he is the safer choice, but it all depends on how badly you need him to win or lose and how much risk you are willing to take.

My last tip is to make sure you continue to look at our Weekly Projections inside the fantasy assistant.  Use these player projections in conjunction with our weekly projections to see where your team stacks up for the coming week.

Expect to see even more features involving projections in the coming weeks.  Now go out there and set some quality lineups.

Still not a member of FantasySP?  Well, sign up because your league opponents aren’t guessing anymore.

What fantasy players are trustworthy?

How much do you actually trust the player’s in your starting lineup?  It’s no easy task to decide who to start and sit, especially when it comes to fantasy football.  As of today, there is a way to quantify the trustworthiness of each player on your fantasy team.  Trust Ratings are available for football, basketball, hockey, and baseball leagues.

The new fantasy metric we created is called their Trust Rating, or Trust for short.  A player’s trust rating indicates the likelihood that they will meet or exceed fantasy expectations.  Each player’s trust rating is rated on a scale of 1-100, 100 being the highest.  Trust Ratings appear across various areas of the site, including the fantasy assistant.

Fantasy Assistant Trust Ratings
Fantasy Assistant Trust Ratings

How Do Trust Ratings Work?

Trust Ratings look at how a player performs throughout the course of the season.   Usually a player has highs and lows throughout the fantasy season.   We crunch this data and come up with the likelihood that he will perform to expectations.   Early in the fantasy season, we will not be able to calculate trust ratings until more games are played.  However, for fantasy football, we have more than enough games played to calculate these, as shown above.

Speaking of fantasy football, the above picture shows that Tony Romo has a trust rating of 80.  This means that there is an 80% chance that he will meet or exceed expectations.  It is extremely unlikely that a player will have a 100% trust rating, even if his name is Peyton Manning.

How Do I Use Trust Ratings?

For this blog post, we will be analyzing fantasy football trust ratings and how you should use this data to set your lineup.  The same thought process and logic can be applied to any other sport – no matter if you are in a H2H category league or a rotisserie league.

Trust ratings will play an important role for the Fantasy Assistant and other areas of the site.   Let’s take a look at my Week 7 Projections, which match the starting lineup shown above.

Week 7 Projections
Week 7 Projections

You can see that Tony Romo is projected to have 22 points.  You’ll also notice that he is one of the highest rated player’s on my team, meaning he is extremely important to the success of my fantasy team.  I may very well end up losing this week if he cannot live up to expectations.  The fact that he has a trust rating of 80 bodes very well for me.  The same can be said about my running backs.

Looking at my Wide Receivers, you’ll notice that it tells a slightly different story.

I am projected to get 34 points  from T.Y. Hilton, Alshon Jeffery, and Brian Quick.  This combination ranks me 3rd in the league.  Not bad!  But take a closer look.  Alshon Jeffery is the most reliable of the bunch at 78%.  Meanwhile Hilton and Quick have ratings of 51 and 64.  T.Y. Hilton has such a high ceiling that he is absolutely worth his risk rating and others agree because his start percentage is so high. Quick has a 51% chance of performing below expectations – which means he is pretty risky.

This is where strategy can come into play.  Generally speaking, it is not wise to start a lot of risky players in a given week.  If I know that Brian Quick is a risky play, then I may opt to put in a lower rated player that is more trustworthy, even if he has lower projected points.

Would you give up 5 or so projected points if you can decrease your risk by 25%?  I know I would.  So go ahead and jump in and take a look at your lineups before Week 7 begins.

Streaming Defenses- Week 4

Week three is officially over and now it is time to take a look at our “team to stream” in week four.

Analysis: This week the pick is the Miami defense on the road in Oakland. This is pretty much a must win for the 1-2 Dolphins because 9-7(Chargers) may not be enough this year to make the playoffs in the AFC. Regardless, the Raiders are last in the NFL in yards, last in points per game and 26th in turnover margin. Rookie Derek Carr has just three touchdown passes this season and is sporting a 74.9 passer rating. The Oakland ground game is equally awful. The Raiders are 23rd in yards per carry and 31st in rushing yards.

The Miami defense has been fine this season despite the 1-2 record. Miami is 9th in yards allowed, 3rd in sacks, 2nd in forced fumbles and 3rd in fumble recoveries. It is disappointing that Dannell Ellerbe will miss the season but the Dolphins have a stacked front seven. The Miami D is available in 98% of fantasy leagues.

Another team to consider this week is the Detroit Lions on the road against the Jets. Geno Smith has thrown 4 picks, has been sacked 6 times, lost 1 fumble and has a 77.0 passer rating through three games.