Author: James Morgan

Albert Einstein is credited with defining 'insanity' as "doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results."

Matt Kemp or Carlos Pena: Pick 1 Keeper

You have notable bounce back candidates Kemp and Pena competing for your last Freeze Roster slot. Toting up their profits is simple arithmetic, right?

Facts: Pena has steadily dropped from .287/46 HR in 2007 to .196/28 HR last season at age 32. Hamstring and foot injuries obviously contributed to his 2010 decline. His career has seen injuries to 6 other body parts: hand (2), knee (2), and once each- groin, head, thigh, and eye. Weigh those with a change of scenery to the NL Central and Cubbies. Kemp dropped off last season from .297/34 SB/89 RBI to .249/19 SB/89 RBI. His fans only wish it was physical, yet Rihanna, Torre, and Bowa are no longer in the picture, while MLB’s Hoosier response to the NBA’s Larry Bird is a continuing and nurturing presence in Chavez Ravine.

Analysis: You have a simple pre-Freeze profit in each of $5, so it’s a toss up. Right? Well, lets look a little closer. Back of the envelope calculations on your league’s suspected keepers shows  a 30% inflation rate at your Auction. Typically, the Roto keeper league inflation rate averages 13%, but we’ve occasionally seen it well beyond 30%. Now what?

Kemp/Pena

$30/$10  Salary

$35/$15  Projected 2011 Value

$5/$5      Pre-Freeze Profit

$23/ $8   Strong Dollar Freeze Salary

$12/$7    Freeze Profit at Weak Dollar Auction

Note: Divide present salary by inflation rate to covert strong Freeze dollars to weak inflated Auction dollars ($30 divided by 130% = $23.)

Kemp is easily the better keeper.

Projections:

Kemp .276/89 R/88 RBI/24 HR/27 SB/612 AB

Pena .220/73 R/87 RBI/29 HR/4 SB/494 AB

{6-4-3 Assist to Marcel}

 

 

Ubaldo Jimenez and Josh Johnson: Solid Buy or Bargain?

Jimenez earned $29 in 2010 and $24 in 2009, while Johnson earned $24 both seasons. Ubaldo threw the Rockies first no-hitter last April and had 15 wins at the Break, while Josh had the lowest NL ERA.

Analysis: Ubaldo is being punished in auctions for 3 cardinal sins- not winning 30 or even 20 games last season; not giving up a normal number of HR; and not breaking down despite suspected pitcher abuse, i.e. 27 games between 100 and 119 pitches, plus another 9 over 119. Jimenez missed 10 days in 2010 and 7 in 2009. On the other hand, Johnson was shut down near the end of the 2010 season for being weary; he had Tommy John Surgery in 2008. Lets look at the two halves of the 2010 season.

Hurler W IP HR BB K ERA WHIP BAA
A  <ASG 15 127 6 46 113 2.20 1.05 .198
A  >ASG 4 94.2 4 46 101 3.80 1.30 .223
B <ASG 9 122 4 28 123 1.70 0.96 .203
B >ASG 2 61.2 3 20 63 3.50 1.39 .276

A is Ubaldo; B is Josh. ASG = All Star Game. In the recent CBS Sports Expert Auction Ubaldo was hammered down for $20 and Josh for $25.

Projections:
Jimenez 20 W, 222 IP, 200 K, 3.45 ERA, and 1.21 WHIP.
Johnson 15 W, 203 IP, 201 K, 3.38 ERA, and 1.25 WHIP.
Why pay 25% more for Johnson?

Elvis Andrus Lite – Alexi Casilla Bargain

Andrus is hot and expensive: $27 in the recent CBS Sports Experts Auction and Round 6 in the KFFL Experts Draft. Casilla is cool, but only in the temperature sense, a post hype, post injury sleeper: $5 and Round 27 in the same Expert Auction and Draft. Both will be starting shortstops in 2011.
Analysis: Casilla has been cowed since his MLB debut in 2006 (age 21), garnering only 557 PA in 5 seasons due to immaturity and injuries. He’ll be 26 with MLB experience growth wise, so lets focus on the injury aspect. Alexi missed 50 days last season and 22 days in 2008. Career wise he’s had injuries to 6 different body parts: hand (3), low back (2), and only once- foot, hip, elbow, and ankle.
PA R HR RBI SB BA OBP Earned
A 674 88 0 35 32 .265 .342 $16
B 557 65 8 50 18 .249 .336 n/a
A is actual 2010 for Elvis. B is an attempt to condense Alexi’s career into a single season’s worth of stats. (6-4-3 Assist to Baseball-Reference’s 162 Game Average)
Projection: 574 PA, 70 R, 10 HR, 60 RBI, 32 SB, .275 BA, .355 OBP, $20 Earned.

Shun Pedro Alvarez and Buy Justin Smoak

Alvarez, 2nd pick in the 2008 draft, made his MLB debut in June 2010, hitting .152 in 51 PA, then flashed in Sept/Oct .306 in 121 PA with 6 HR. Smoak, the 11th pick in the same draft, made his MLB debut last April, hitting .130 in 31 PA, before finishing in Sept/Oct with .340 in 57 PA, and 3 HR.

Auction Analysis: In the recent CBS Experts’ Leagues Auctions Pedro Alvarez was hammered down for $29, while Justin Smoak cost his owner $16.

2010 Earned PA BA HR RBI R SB
Wright $31 670 .283 29 103 87 19
Z’erman$26 603 .307 25 85 85 4
Alvarez $12 386 .256 16 53 42 0

Barton $16 686 .273 10 57 79 7
Overbay$14 608 .243 20 67 75 1
Smoak $6 397 .218 13 48 40 1

If your team at the end of the auction earns exactly what you paid for it, then you shall finish in the middle of your league. Lose money on your overall investment and finish lower. Only a $20 profit means a First Div Team.

Truth or Dare: If a bid is a bet, then would you rather bet that Alvarez is the 2nd coming of the 2010 David Wright or that Smoak is the 2nd coming of the 2010 Daric Barton?

Prince Fielder Not Your Typical Bounce Back Candidate

Prince Fielder’s 5 seasons as a full time masher, ISO: .213-.330-.231-.303-.209. Last season he was the 6th biggest NL hitter bust in auction leagues: average cost $38, earned $22.

Analysis: It’s a wonderfully long season for the fan, but a veteran’s greeting at Doug Glanville’s first Spring Training sums it up– welcome to The Show; you’ll never be 100% healthy again. Prince didn’t miss a day on the DL in 2010, but he played through a sore left-hand in April, then a sore left wrist in August.

Projection: 39 HR, 113 R, 135 RBI, 2 SB, .283 BA

Auction Tactics: On Auction Day unspent salary cap is a loss. In order to spend it all you must embrace risk by making at least a couple of big purchases. Typically the best-case scenario is to break even on large investments, but Prince will do better, returning a slight profit.