Author: Tom Blaz

With Opening Day almost here, time to take a look at National League hitters.  The depth or scarcity depends on your league size and pool of players (AL, NL or mixed). We take a look at potential sleepers, injury concerns and other critical information.

A holdover and a youngster that exploded upon the scene enter 2011 as the top backstops in the NL. Atlanta’s Brian McCann is in teriffic shape and San Francisco’s Buster Posey delivered everything and more as a rookie. Following those two pricy options, Arizona’s Miguel Montero is the next best of the rest. Moving on down, Colorado’s Chris Ianetta has power potential at Coors field. If you want to avoid the $1 catcher strategy, consider veterans Ramon Hernandez of Cincinnati and Ryan Doumit of Pittsburgh.  Sleeper pick is Wilson Ramos of the Nationals. Ramos, who came from Minnesota in the Matt Capps deal, is in the immediate future plans in DC.

At the corner, as always, much more depth at 1b. We begin at the hot corner, where a pair of sluggers lead the pack. New York 3b David Wright and Washington’s Ryan Zimmerman will be the pricy options.  Aramis Ramirez may be worthy of a gamble, as he is healthy and is capable of delivering top numbers at a cheaper price. Mid tier options are youngsters Pablo Sandoval of the Giants and Pittsburgh rookie Pedro Alvarez. Future Hall of Famer’s Scott Rolen and Chipper Jones may have enough left in the tank for one more contribution.  At 1b, St.Louis slugger Albert Pujols continues to be the top pick overall.  Three others are capable of MVP numbers, Milwaukee’s Prince Fielder, Philadelphia’s Ryan Howard and Cincinnati’s Joey Votto. After that its a mixed bag of veterans with two rookies deserving attention. San Francisco’s Brandon Belt and Atlanta’s Freddie Freeman appear to be starters opening day.

Shorstops are where the studs live in the middle infield. Florida’s Hanley Ramirez and Colorado’s Troy Tulowitzki will both be high first round or big buck selections. New York’s Jose Reyes and Philadelphia’s Jimmy Rollins will probably be overpriced as owners scramble after the first two are gone.  Up and coming Arizona SS Stephen Drew will be your best remaining with fellow youngsters Ian Desmond of Washington and Starlin Castro worthy of serious consideration. At 2b, Brandon Phillips is the most reliable, with Rickie Weeks possessing the best upside. Omar Infante made the all-star team as a utility man, offers good numbers across the board and multi position eligibility. If you are in a keeper league, you might want to save some cash for the injured Chase Utley. Pittsburgh’s Neil Walker is finally delivering on his promise, while a pair in new places, Jose Lopez in Colorado and Dan Uggla in Atlanta could deliver in a big way.

Matt Holliday, Carlos Gonzalez and Ryan Braun are the outfield elite. You know what you are going to get, and you will pay for that right. Almost certain to be overpriced, Atlanta’s Jason Heyward and Washington’s Jayson Werth. Those with upside, Pittsburgh’s Andrew McCutcheon, Cincinnati’s Jay Bruce, Florida’s Mike Stanton and Arizona’s Justin Upton. If you can be patient through the first five, you may be able to land two on the rise.  Colby Rasmus from St.Louis and Cincinnati’s Drew Stubbs continue to climb. Lastly, there are the vets you can look at for one last run. Chicago’s Alfonso Soriano, New York’s Carlos Beltran and Philadelphia’s Raul Ibanez appear to be approaching the end.

Taking a peek at the minors for those that have this phase of their draft or auction. Many of the elite major league ready prospects appear to be “up” on 25 man rosters. Of those that are sent down, the top overall pick is certainly Washington’s Bryce Harper. Harper may turn out to be the Strasburg of the Nationals offense. Another top NL prospect is outfielder Dominic Brown. Brown is injured, his availability in your minor league draft will be subject to league rules.  Atlanta pitcher Julio Teheran is another must have. Due to depth in the Braves rotation, he may be a year away. Cincinnati’s Yonder Alonso is road blocked by Votto, but is learning the outfield. Pitchers make up most of the remaining elite prospects. Pittsburgh’s Jameson Taillon, St.Louis’ Shelby Miller, Atlanta’s Mike Minor and Arizona’s Jarrod Parker are all worthy of top picks.

Tomorrow, we take a look at National League pitching.

How important is pitching in Fantasy Baseball? Well, its worth half, when it comes to points in almost every format. Most leagues are standard four category rotisserie or the 5×5 which is growing in popularity.

How much of your fantasy budget should you spend? I wouldn’t spend more than a third of your budget if you are in a mixed league. Owners in National and American only leagues might have to spend a bit more due to scarcity. League size plays a role when determining budget and emphasis on saves can skew prices of closers.

Lets start with the sure things. Is there such an animal in fantasy sports? Well, injuries to star pitchers like Stephen Strasburg and Adam Wainwright show that anyone is just a pitch away…. from season ending injury.  With that in mind, Seattle’s Felix Hernandez is the only American League pitcher that is a “must have” in my book.  “King Felix” is young, has nasty stuff and is incredibly durable. Yankee pitcher C.C.Sabathia might be the next closest thing with similar strengths and the option for opting out of his contract for free agency at the end of the season.

The next grouping of pitchers should be from the “young guns”. These are players that have already displayed elite skills are are within the prime (26-28) or peak age. Boston’s Jon Lester, Anaheim’s Jared Weaver, Detroit’s Justin Verlander and Minnesota’s Francisco Liriano headline that group.  I also recommend going for power pitchers, even if you are not in a 5×5 with strikeouts. Why? I’ll take a strike out over a batted ball any day.

I also recommend going for the younger pitchers over those that are 30 and beyond. In that list, pitchers that are approaching prime are Tampa Bay’s David Price, Detroit’s Max Scherzer, Boston’s Clay Buchholz, Chicago’s John Danks and New York’s Phillip Hughes.

There are several American League staffs with a number of pitchers who may serve you well. Baltimore has a trio with a big upside in Brian Matusz, Jake Arrieta and Chris Tillman. In Tampa, we already mentioned Mr. Price, but also consider Wade Davis, Jeff Niemann and Jeremy Hellickson. Oakland may have the most impressive group of all with Brett Anderson, Trevor Cahill,  Gio Gonzalez and Dallas Braden. These pitchers have “live” arms, should be on the “upside” of careers and for the most part were taken with premium picks in the Amateur draft.

There are some injuries to be aware of:  Texas’ Brandon Webb, Chicago’s Jake Peavy, Toronto’s Brandon Morrow and Oakland closer Andrew Bailey appear headed for the disabled list by opening day. Bid accordingly or perhaps avoid altogether.  Who may breakout in the AL from a year ago? Anaheim’s Dan Haren over from the National League, Minnesota closer Joe Nathan and newly installed Chicago closer Matt Thornton.

About the closers, there are two strategies, get the sure fire guy or load up on “committee” guys. Only five are likely to get most of the opportunities: Kansas City’s Joakim “The Mexicutioner” Soria, Boston’s Jonathan Papelbon, New York’s Mariano Rivera and Texas’ Neftali Feliz. The next grouping includes the aforementioned Bailey, Thornton and Nathan as well as Cleveland’s Chris Perez. Doubt does remain even with some of these, Papelbon has struggled with Daniel Bard a capable replacement, Rivera is ancient with Rafael Soriano waiting in the wings, Nathan has Matt Capps looking over his surgically repaired shoulder and Texas can’t decide if Feliz is a starter or reliever. If you go with these types, you may want to take the “handcuff” backup or alternate, especially if you have reserve roster space. My two favorite “sleepers”? Tampa Bay’s Jake McGee and Chicago’s Chris Sale, don’t tell anybody, OK?

Tomorrow, we’ll begin to breakdown the National League.

When looking at sleepers in Major League Baseball, an important distinction is the type of league you are competing in. If you are involved in an American (or National) only league, there really are no sleepers. If you are in a mixed league, you need to know the secondary players, as that are where many auctions/drafts are won and lost.

We begin behind the plate where Joe Mauer and Victor Martinez reign supreme. You will pay dearly for either, as following them there is a major drop off.  Cleveland’s Carlos Santana will be victim of overhype, most likely overpriced.  NY’s Russell Martin and Boston’s Jarrod Saltalamacchia should deliver and might be bargains. Look for Baltimore’s Matt Wieters to deliver big after disappointing his rookie season. Low round bet: Alex Avila of Detroit.

On to the corner, where as usual, scarcity awaits at 3b. At the top Kevin Youkilis, Evan Longoria and Alex Rodriguez. Stay away from Jose Bautista as he will be expensive and cannot follow up the career season of a year ago.Baltimore’s Mark Reynolds should deliver power at Camden Yards and Chone Figgins should bounce back with speed in Seattle. Over at 1b, the big four; Boston’s Adrian Gonzalez, New York’s Mark Teixeria, Detroit’s Miguel Cabrera and Minnesota’s Justin Morneau.  Kendry Morales may come cheaper due to his prolonged injury, but he won’t be out long. Seattle’s Justin Smoak will reward those that pick him.

In the middle, New York’s Robinson Cano and Boston’s Dustin Pedroia will be premium selections.  Texas’ Ian Kinsler, Baltimore’s Brian Roberts and Toronto’s Aaron Hill are all capable of bounce back seasons. Chicago’s Gordon Beckham struggled a year ago, but soon will be the best in the circuit. With the premiere shortstops in the National League, you may be best served by waiting for a bargain. Chicago’s Alexei Ramirez and Texas’ Elvis Andrus will be the sexy picks, but probably overvalued. I like Boston’s Jed Lowrie, Minnesota’s Alexi Casilla and the Escobar’s, Alcides in Kansas City and Yunel in Toronto.

Boston’s Carl Crawford and Jacoby Ellsbury and Texas outfielder Josh Hamilton will require top picks or premium dollars on draft day. Much depends on how your league value’s stolen bases and to some extend runs scored. I tend to avoid the one category wonders like Toronto’s Rajai Davis, Toronto’s Juan Pierre and New York’s Brett Gardner. If you are in a 5×5, then the runs scored will give them more value. If you must have a speed merchant, Texas’ Julio Borbon will be a much more affordable option. Watch Grady Sizemore at your draft/auction, injuries will hurt his value, jump if it gets too low. My favorite targets are always the young players who didn’t deliver first time around. Minnesota’s Denard Span tops this group along with Baltimore’s Adam Jones. Chicago’s Carlos Quentin and Baltimore’s Nick Markakis could also bring value after less that stellar seasons.

For your utility spot, if you grab a designated hitter, obviously he must go here. I personally like to have more flexibility with a player with multiple position eligibility in this spot. Why? it allows you to plug him in to fill an injury and pick from the entire pool of free agents for the utility spot.  If you must, Vladimir Guerrero, now with the Orioles, is the only elite player that does not qualify in the field. Other options are Boston’s David Ortiz, Cleveland’s Travis Hafner, Minnesota’s Jim Thome and Oakland’s Hideki Matsui.

Minor League (hitters): If you have a minor league phase during your draft/auction, here is a look at your prime targets. Chicago 3b Brent Morel should be the starter, sooner than later. New York catcher Jesus Montero arrives this year. Players for more long term consideration?  Kansas City is loaded with 3b  Mike Moustakas and 1b Eric Hosmer both elite prospects. Seattle 2b Dustin Ackley will be a long term fixture for the Mariners. 2b Brett Lawrie has a future in Boston. Tampa SS Tim Beckham was the top pick in the 2008 amateur draft. Also in the Rays system outfielder Desmond Jennings. Jennings has been slow to arrive, but definitely worth of a top pick.  Many hot shot rookies are on the bubble between the majors and minors. Be sure to check the 25 man rosters immediately prior to Opening Day.

Tomorrow, we’ll take a look at American League pitchers.