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ADP Watch- RBs Part 2

Montee Ball is recovering following an appendectomy. He should be good to go late in the preseason.

Analysis: Montee Ball should recover in time to be 100% for week one. But… if Ronnie Hillman impresses it could blow up the entire fantasy landscape. Currently, Ball is being drafted as the 7th to 13th running back. He is being taken in the 11-29 pick range. It takes a lot of faith to draft a back that isn’t good to go right now and may lose some carries if his backup kills it in camp/preseason. There are plenty of safer options later on including Doug Martin or CJ Spiller.

Last year Ball rushed for 559 yards and 4 rushing touchdowns on 4.7 yards per carry. He lost 3 fumbles on just 120 carries. The fumbles are an issue. Ronnie Hillman is an issue. His appendectomy is an issue. His average draft position is an issue.

When you draft a lower tier RB1 or a higher end RB2 you want to be certain he will be on the end of 275 or so touches. Do you have confidence that Ball will get that many touches? I didn’t think so. Ryan Mathews had 311 touches last year, Alfred Morris had 285, Zac Stacy had 276 in 14 games.

ADP Watch- TEs

Jordan Reed may be the breakout fantasy star of the 2014 NFL season.

Analysis: Reed recorded 499 receiving yards and 3 touchdowns last year in just nine games played(four starts). Reed would have finished 8th among tight ends last season if you project his numbers over sixteen games. Jordan Reed is the 7th to 10th tight end being taken off the board in drafts. He is going in the 75-125 pick range.

The Washington offense sets up well for Reed this season. Pierre Garcon is the possession guy, DeSean Jackson is the stretch the field guy, RG3 is a dual threat and Alfred Morris is a respectable running back. This allows head coach Jay Gruden to let Reed do what he does… which is make athletic plays. Reed isn’t a big leaper like some of the elite tight ends but he is absolutely dangerous in the open field.

If Reed can stay healthy he is a lock to put up top ten fantasy tight end numbers… with a top five ceiling. I do not trust Jordan Cameron(1 TD in last 8 gms last yr) this season with the Browns quarterback situation and the Josh Gordon suspension. Dennis Pitta and Kyle Rudolph are fine but they do not have top five potential or the athletic ability of Reed.

ADP Watch- WRs Part 2

Terrance Williams had a fine rookie season with the Cowboys in 2013. He recorded 44 receptions for 736 yards and 5 touchdowns. The Cowboys do have a ton of talent on the offensive side of the ball but expect Williams to improve upon his rookie campaign.

Analysis: Currently, Williams is being taken off the board in the 80-99 pick range. He is the 32nd to 39th wide out being taken. Williams finished 2013 as the 40th rated fantasy wide out in standard leagues so having him taken as the 32nd to 39th wide out is not bad at all. Keep in mind that Williams had four games last year that he recorded one or fewer receptions. At times last season he seemed a bit lost out there but all signs point to Williams becoming more consistent as a second year player.

Williams should be fine as a WR3/FLEX play this season. It certainly helps that he has a quarterback who can put up numbers and Dez Bryant commanding so much attention.

He isn’t a reach in the 80-99 pick range- he is a solid option with a high ceiling. On the other hand reaching for Cecil Shorts or Steve Smith at this time offers very little reward.

ADP Watch- WRs

Cordarrelle Patterson is a great athlete but he has a ways to go before he contributes consistently.

Analysis: Patterson is currently being taken off the board in the 42-69 pick range. He is the 16th to 25th wide out being taken on average. Wide receivers who finished in the 16-25 range last season are as follows- Wes Welker, Marques Colston, Larry Fitzgerald, Keenan Allen and TY Hilton. What is the one thing that these consistent receivers have in common…. solid quarterbacks. The Vikes have two/three potential starting quarterbacks this season which means they don’t have one. Minnesota would not have drafted Teddy Bridgewater in the first round if they believed in Matt Cassel or Christian Ponder.

We know Greg Jennings is a reliable, solid wide out but he only managed to put up 804 yards and 4 touchdowns on 68 receptions last season. Jennings finished 39th among fantasy wide receivers last year in standard leagues. Patterson is good but he’s still raw and does not have the quarterback to put up WR2 type numbers. Patterson is being taken ahead of Andre Johnson, Roddy White, TY Hilton, DeSean Jackson and Torrey Smith according to fantasyfootballcalculator.com.

Expecting a second year wide out without a reliable quarterback to put up WR2 numbers this season after a 45 reception, 469 yard rookie campaign is lunacy.

ADP Watch- QBs

ESPN has Ryan Tannehill ranked as the 22nd best fantasy quarterback this season. Tannehill finished 2013 as the 16th best fantasy quarterback with the worst offensive line in the league. Let me repeat that- Ryan Tannehill was the 16th best QB last year with the worst offensive line in the league.

Analysis: Tannehill has a career 79.1 passer rating through two seasons as a pro. Andrew Luck has a career 81.5 passer rating and has taken 20 less sacks during his two year career. I’m not saying Tannehill is better than Luck but they are closer than a lot of the hype mongers would have you believe.

Johnny Manziel, Eli Manning and Joe Flacco are being taken before Tannehill as a QB2. Tannehill is the 22nd quarterback being taken off the board in the 138-160 pick range. This does not make any sense. Yes, Tannehill does play in a difficult division from a defensive point of view but he is poised to break out this season. The Miami O-line should be mediocre this year which means less sacks, hurries, interceptions, fumbles and of course more accuracy from the pocket. Tannehill ranked 10th last year in rushing yards among quarterbacks- expect even more from Ryan this year as the read-option will find its way into the Miami offensive scheme courtesy of Bill Lazor.

ESPN ranks Tannehill at 22… he finished last season at 16 and improvements have been made to the offensive line(Branden Albert) and he will run more. Thanks ESPN, spot on as always.