Time To Sell Carlos Beltran

Carlos Beltran now has eight homers on the season after mashing three Thursday night against the Rockies. His play thus far this year has been surprisingly solid but we know what lies ahead for the switch hitter…injuries.

Analysis: Beltran hasn’t reached 360 plate appearances in each of his last two years and his speed numbers are in rapid decline. Beltran has just three steals in his last 100 games and to further add insult to injury, he hasn’t even attempted one stolen base this year. It is obvious he in no longer a five category fantasy stud but his recent power surge is questionable as well. Beltran’s isolated power has decreased in each of his last four years and to see his ISO in the .230-.250 range this year is shocking considering his career ISO is just .212. As the season moves forward and Beltran’s legs just cannot take the beating day after day and as his fielding becomes even more of a liability we know he has at least two trips to the disabled list down the road. If he does stay healthy and his power dries up you’re left with an outfielder without a great asset and one you could have sold in mid May for a younger fantasy stud in a slump.

Advice: Beltran has a few trips to the disabled list in him and it serves all Beltran owners well to see what they can get for him right now.

 

NBA Draft: Early Entrants, Combine and Lottery

 

Sunday night was the deadline for college basketball stars to submit their names to be considered for the NBA draft. Some have already withdrawn, opting to  return to school, others may as well by the June 13th deadline. With uncertainty due to potential NBA labor strife, a surprising number of top players decided to forgo the draft. At the same time, others that will go undrafted, opted to hire agents, giving up their college eligibility.

In advance of the draft, a combine will be held in Chicago next week. 54 players will undergo physicals and interviews with prospective teams. Players will also have the option to participate in drills if they so choose. Historically, those invited to the combine are drafted, so the list is a fairly good peak.

Notable players withdrawing from draft (over weekend):

Ashton Gibbs- Pittsburgh

Reggie Johnson- Miami

Terrence Jones- Kentucky

Here are the top early entrants: (in no particular order)

Center

Enes Kanter- Kentucky

Forward

Tobias Harris- Tennessee

Jordan Williams- Maryland

Derrick Williams- Arizona

Trey Thompkins- Georgia

Tyler Honeycutt- UCLA

Scotty Hopson- Tennessee

Kawhi Leonard- San Diego State

Tristan Thompson- Texas

Markieff Morris- Kansas

Marcus Morris- Kansas

Chris Singleton- Florida State

Guard

Kyrie Irving- Duke

Brandon Knight- Kentucky

Alec Burks- Colorado

Kemba Walker- Connecticut

Josh Shelby- Kansas

Travis Leslie- Georgia

Shelvin Mack- Butler

Jordan Hamilton- Texas

Klay Thompson- Washington State

Darius Morris- Michigan

Note: 20 international players have also filed eligibility paperwork

With no natural centers leaving early, expect international bigs to get attention early.

7’0″ Donatas Motiejunas (Italy)

6’11” Jonas Valanciunas (Lithuania)

6’11” Jan Vesely (Serbia)

The NBA Draft Lottery will be held on Tuesday night at halftime of the Western Conference finals. In order, Minnesota, Cleveland, Toronto, Washington, Sacramento and Utah (from New Jersey) have the greatest chance of picking first. Seven teams will have two selections in the first round. Cleveland, Utah, Washington, Charlotte, Minnesota, Houston and Chicago have an extra pick due to trades.

The 2011 NBA draft will be held on Tuesday, June 23rd at the Prudential Center in Newark, NJ.

NFL Draft Review: AFC West

 

 

The Denver Broncos landed Texas A&M linebacker Von Miller with the 2nd pick of the 1st round. Miller was without question the top linebacker in the draft, but may be smallish to play defensive end. As the Broncos move from a 3-4 to a 4-3 defense, look for Miller at outside linebacker, perhaps at end on passing downs. Miller and Elvis Dumervil should help Denver improve on an NFL low 23 sacks a year ago. The Broncos picked up a pair of potential starters in the 2nd round in UCLA safety Rahim Moore and guard Orlando Franklin from the U. Moore fills a position of need and like Miller was the top player at his position in the draft. Franklin is 6’6″ 320 with versatility to play either inside or outside. Franklin may not have the athleticism to play tackle, but is expected to get a look at right tackle and left guard.

The Oakland Raiders brought in more quantity that quality, with six players capable of making a contribution. Penn State guard Stefen Wisnieski was considered a reach in the 2nd round but should start at either guard or center. Miami cornerback DeMarcus Van Dyke is a typical Oakland pick, more of a track athlete than football player. With Nnamdi Asomugha departing in free agency, corner is definitely a position of need. Ohio State corner Chimdi Chekwa is a man cover corner and was good value in the 4th round. LSU offensive tackle Joe Barksdale was a three-year starter and eventually projects as a bookend to left tackle Jared Veldheer. Oakland didn’t need a running back, but picked up small school start Taiwan Jones. Out of Eastern Washington, Jones has a blend of decent size and speed and should contribute on special teams as a rookie. Tennessee receiver Denarius Moore was very productive for the Vols and will run out of the slot.

Not an exciting draft for San Diego with a defensive tackle taken in the opening round. Illinois’ Corey Liguet figures to move outside in the Chargers 3-4 scheme, as they have a huge need at end. Clemson cornerback Marcus Gilchrist has versatility with the ability to cover slot receivers back at safety, early in his career. Home town start Vincent Brown put up excellent numbers at San Diego State and was good value given the Chargers uncertainty at wide out. Brown’s speed and size don’t jump out at you, but he runs excellent routes and should develop into a favorite of Philip Rivers. Connecticut running back Jordan Todman may turn out to be a steal in the 6th round. Todman doesn’t have the size to run between the tackles, but will be a nice spare to complement Ryan Matthews. Todman could also contribute on special teams.

The best draft in the AFC West, hands down, goes to the Kansas City Chiefs. Pittsburgh receiver Jonathan Baldwin has the chance to be as good as either A.J.Green or Julio Jones. Comparisons to Larry Fitzgerald are valid, at least potentially. Baldwin is 6’5″ 230, with a 42” vertical and excellent speed. KC should be able to count on he and Dwayne Bowe for years go come. Florida State’s Rodney Hudson was arguably the top interior offensive lineman in the draft. Hudson fills an area of need as the Chiefs are aging in the middle. Georgia’s Justin Houston was considered by some 1st round talent, so getting him in a 3rd round was a real coup.  Houston is huge, 6’3″ 270, with great athleticism and speed to rush on the edge. The Chiefs also picked up a pair of defensive line who should be in the rotation immediately Miami defensive end Allen Bailey and Jerrell Powe of Ole Miss are both very talented, and real value late in the draft. The Chiefs picked up their developmental quarterback getting  Iowa’s Ricky Stanzi in the 5th round.

Aaron Hill Is Under The Radar

Toronto second baseman Aaron Hill is now three games into his return from a hamstring injury and he is flying under many fantasy owner’s radars.

Analysis: Yes, Aaron Hill had an awful 2010 campaign with a sub .200 BABIP but he is one of the premier power hitting second baseman in the game. He’s averaged 31 homers over the last two seasons so it is surprising to see him available in so many fantasy leagues across the country. Hill has yet to homer in seventy-five at bats this season but it’s hard to blame him since it’s difficult to find any rhythm with his recent injury. Hill will be fine, Toronto has a solid lineup and he hits homers in bunches. This is a perfect opportunity to either pluck Aaron Hill up off the waiver wire or to buy the slugger at a discounted price. He’s still capable of posting twenty homers by season’s end and his run and RBI totals will be more than solid the rest of the way. Hill is pressing a bit at the plate and is striking out a bit above his career average but we can deal with the strikeouts when his power surfaces.

Projection: He’s never been a friend of your batting average in roto leagues but that isn ‘t why you’d want to own the second baseman. Expect a .250 BA, 17 HR, 50 R, 50 RBI and five plus steals the rest of the season. His value will not get lower.

NFL Draft Review: AFC South

 

 

Our review of the AFC South begins in Jacksonville, where the Jaguars identified the future face of their franchise and made a move to get him.  The Jags making a move for Missouri quarterback Blaine Gabbert. With David Garrard still on board, Gabbert will have the luxury of watching and learning without having to be force-fed. Gabbert will also benefit with a Pro Bowl running back along side and a serviceable offensive line. Lehigh guard Will Rackley, the Jags 3rd round pick, has versatility to play anywhere along the line. Jacksonville stayed small school in the 4th round with Mount Union wide receiver Cecil Shorts. A real area of need, Shorts will not only compete for a starting job at receiver, he is reliable on special teams.

The Houston Texans were pretty much guaranteed to be looking corner in the 1st round, but surprised many by taking Wisconsin defensive lineman J.J.Watt. The Texans like Watt so much they are exploring a move of All Pro defensive end Mario Williams from end to outside linebacker. Pass rush was the focus atop the draft with Arizona edge rusher Brooks Reed the selection in round two. An end in college, Reed projects as an OLB in the Texans new 3-4 alignment. Houston did get its cover corner, but waited until round two to do so, landing Miami’s Brandon Harris. Houston with great value and another corner in round 4 with Rashad Carmichael from Virginia Tech. A developmental quarterback in North Carolina’s T.J.Yates came in round five.

As Peyton Manning continues to age, it becomes more and more important for the Indianapolis Colts to provide excellent protection up front. Massive offensive tackle Anthony Castonzo, 6’7″ 315, comes via Boston College and will eventually be tasked with protecting Manning’s blind side. In the 2nd round, the Colts stayed with big uglies getting Villanova lineman Ben Ijalana. Ijalana has the versatility to play inside or outside. Indy with an absolute steal in the 3rd round, getting LSU defensive tackle Drake Nevis. Nevis is an ideal fit for the Colts one gap scheme. Nevis’ interior penetration reminds me of Nick Fairley lite. In the 4th round, the Colts added another running back to a very crowded, competitive situation. Delone Carter from Syracuse is a load at 5’9 225 pounds.

The biggest surprise of the first round was the Titans selection of Washington quarterback Jake Locker. It was no surprise that Tennessee selected a quarterback, just that Locker was selected with Gabbert still on the board. The Titans bolstered their defense in the 2nd and 3rd rounds with UCLA linebacker Akeem Ayers and  USC defensive tackle Jurrell Casey. It would have come to no surprise had both been selected much higher in the draft. Tennessee focused on selected productive players at big time programs, Miami linebacker Colin McCarthy, Clemson fullback Jamie Harper and Auburn defensive lineman Zach Clayton all fit the bill.

We wrap up our previews tomorrow with a look at the AFC West