NFL Draft Review: AFC North

 

 

Another solid draft for Pittsburgh. At the top, the AFC champs addressed both lines. Cameron Heyward can play inside or outside in the 3-4 and along with D’Qwan Bowers has the biggest upside at the position. The Steelers continue to rebuild their aging D-line, Heyward is a nice complement to Ziggy Hood. Offensive tackle Marcus Gilbert also has excellent upside. Like Heyward, Gilbert has the versatility to play multiple positions and could contribute at both guard and tackle as Pittsburgh has a need at both. Texas defensive back Curtis Brown should also be part of the rotation as a rookie. Brown also excels on special teams both as a return man and as a gunner.

The Cleveland Browns were the recipient of a draft day gift courtesy of Atlanta. The Falcons giving up five elite picks for the right to move up to take Alabama wide receiver Julio Jones.  Baylor defensive tackle Phil Taylor is a load and should start from day one as Cleveland moves from the 3-4 to the 4-3. Pitt’s Jabaal Sheard was a nice pickup in round two and will provide rush on the edge. With their extra 2nd rounder, Colt McCoy gets a much-needed target in North Carolina wide receiver Greg Little.  One of many Tar Heels sitting out 2010 due to off the field issues, Little is tremendous running after the catch. The Browns went to the Pac 10 in the 4th round, getting Southern Cal tight end Cameron Jordan and Stanford  fullback Owen Marecic. Jordan, a former basketball player brings athleticism to the position, while Marecic was a two way star for the Cardinal. With Peyton Hills at tail back following the lead blocking of Marecic. the Browns should have a nice power running game.  The gift keeps on giving as the Browns will have Atlanta’s 1st and 4th round picks in the 2012 draft.

Three teams are the prototype for rebuilding through the draft while staying competitive. The New England Patriots, the Philadelphia Eagles and the Baltimore Ravens. Baltimore identified two players that fit a need prior to the draft and got them both.  Colorado Jimmy Smith was a top-15 talent that slipped due to “character” concerns. Smith was the second best cover corner in the draft, behind only the freakish Patrick Peterson. Age is creeping up on the Ravens defense and Smith may push for a starting role in September.  Baltimore picked up the fast, athletic receiver they needed in local product Torrey Smith. Smith was electrifying in the return game at Maryland and will be the perfect complement to Anquan Boldin. Jay Reid arrives from Central Florida and projects as the long-term bookend offensive tackle with Michael Oher. I like what the Ravens did at the end of the draft getting Virginia Tech quarterback Tyrod Taylor and Georgia Tech running back Anthony Allen. GM Ozzie Newsome is raving about what Taylor may add, while Allen is a nice power back option to supplement Ray Rice.

The Cincinnati Bengals are at a crossroads as older big name players are moving on. Quarterback Carson Palmer and receivers Chad Johnson and Terrell Owens appear to be moving on. A.J, Green was the most complete receiver in the class and will start from day one. Green and Jordan Shipley should be a nice combination for years to come. What will the Bengals do at quarterback? Andy Dalton was the man they targeted and they were elated to pick him up in the second round. Dalton appears a perfect fit for new offensive coordinator Jay Gruden’s west coast offense. LB Dontay Moch runs an amazing 4.4 and brings athleticism to the linebacker corps. Along with former USC studs Rey Maualuga and Keith Rivers, Cincinnati appears to be in good shape at linebacker for quite some time.

Tomorrow we review the AFC South

Have Some Faith In Kelly Johnson

Kelly Johnson may be hitting just .176 this year but there is reason for hope.

Analysis: Kelly Johnson’s BABIP this year is 93 points below his career average, so he’s having a bit of an Aaron Hill 2010 season thus far. There is still plenty of time to bounce back and despite all his struggles Johnson still has four bombs and four stolen bases. He is only one of three second baseman in baseball with at least four homers and four swipes and his 14 runs is still good for fourteenth among major league second baseman. There really isn’t a reason why Johnson is available in over thirty percent of fantasy leagues but other owners lack of patience is your gain. Although Johnson did peak last year with a .284 batting average and 26 home runs he’ still on pace for 20 home runs and his BABIP will bounce back. He hits in a great hitter’s park, second base isn’t as deep as everyone thinks it is and when he returns to action Tuesday against the Giants he should return to form. Johnson is still a viable option at second in deeper leagues and is certainly bench worthy in every league.

Projection: Johnson should hit nearly twenty homers and will end up with about fifteen steals. His average should come up into the .240 range, sixty points above what he is hitting now. Have some faith.

Nelson Cruz hits the DL – Rangers offense sputters

Texas Rangers outfielder Nelson Cruz was placed on the Disabled List today with a strained right quadriceps muscle.

Cruz had struggled since his epic 1st week of the season, down to a .219 batting average and a .741 OPS, well below the .318 and .950 he hit last season. In his last 6 games before he went on the DL, Cruz had gone 2-23 with 8 strikeouts and 2 walks.

Nellie was on the DL last season three times for hamstring issues, so leg issues are not foreign to him.  Hopefully the time off will help him regain his focus.

Analysis: While the Boomstick is sidelined, Mitch Moreland will see regular playing time in the outfield. Mitch has been solid in his second season, with 11 RBI’s and 15 runs in 30 games, along with 4 home runs. His lefty/right splits are horrific (.100/.280/.100 vs. .315/.383/.616), but with Craig Gentry as the only other outfield option, Moreland will get his chances to experience “growing pains” against left-handed pitchers. But remember, he did blast a home run off the Giants’ Jonathan Sanchez in the World Series.

Ron Washington could also change up the lineup, dropping Kinsler to a run-producing spot. But that might just be against left-handed pitchers.

NOTE: Moreland is hitting 7th tonight against the Yankees against RHP Bartolo Colon.

Recommendations: While Moreland has nice potential, his numbers against lefties does not bode well for a two-week stint in fantasy baseball. Both Gerardo Parra (owned in 1% of leagues) and Nate McClouth (owned in 11% of leagues) are top-50 players over the last two weeks and have higher ceilings across the board.

Draft Impact- Cam Newton

Cam Newton figures to be the starting quarterback for the Panthers on day one but is he a legit QB2 this year?

Analysis: Even without DeAngelo Williams the Panthers still have a solid ground game with Jonathan Stewart and Mike Goodson. Newton, like Sam Bradford before him will not be asked to win games just limit mistakes. Obviously, Newton’s greatest asset is his legs and a potential 500 rushing yard year is not out of the question. A 500 yard season on the ground would easily put him into low end QB2 status with the potential for more. However, Newton’s decision making and defensive recognition is suspect so you can expect just as many passing touchdowns to interceptions. In dynasty/keeper leagues you really have to pass on a guy that more than likely will never throw for more than 3,600 yards and seems to be a glorified version of Vince Young. Guys like Josh Freeman and Aaron Rodgers put up more than solid rushing numbers for a quarterback but at least they can throw it without question. There is only one Mike Vick and Newton isn’t him. Newton does have slightly more talent than Vince Young but he is years behind in terms of polish when each came out of school early.

Projection: Look for Newton to pass for 2,500 yards with up to 500 rushing yards. Twenty total touchdowns is possible but expect twenty picks. He’s an extremely low end QB2 this year but could wind up being a top 18 quarterack by year’s end.

NFL Draft Recap: AFC East

 

The absolute king of building a champion through the draft resides in the AFC East. The New England Patriots are the blue print that every team should follow. Trading down and sticking with their draft board has kept the Pats young and competitive. New England with another excellent draft in 2011, and have stockpiled extra picks in both the first and second rounds for next year. Ironically, It was the Patriots ending up with quarterback Ryan Mallett after he was rumored to both Buffalo and Miami.

The Buffalo Bills resisted the urge to select their quarterback of the future and selected Alabama defensive lineman Marcel Dareus. Arguably the top talent in the entire draft, Dareus projects as a disruptive force anywhere along the front four. At 320 pounds, Dareus is a prototype 3-4 end. Buffalo addressed every level of its defense, going with Texas corner Aaron Williams in round two and LSU linebacker Kelvin Sheppard in the 3rd. Williams is probably better suited for safety and will see time immediately in both nickel and dime packages. Sheppard was highly productive in a stellar LSU defense and may eventually pair with Paul Poslusny in the center of the Bills defense. While focusing on defense, Buffalo did get a bargain in the 5th round with North Carolina running back Johnny White. White is a heavy-duty back and might be a nice complement to C.J.Spiller.

It almost seems unfair the way the New England Patriots appear to control draft weekend on an annual basis. Bill Belichik has the patience to give up a pick for “next” year and the willingness to trade players that are still productive (Richard Seymour) but nearing the end of their prime. Massive Colorado tackle Nate Solder was the Pats 1st round selection.  Solder is a towering 6’8″ and is not only the future at left tackle, but insurance in case free agent Matt Light departs. In the 2nd round, New England selected Virginia defensive back Ras-I Dowling, a very physical cover corner who could pair with Devin McCourty for years to come. Bilichick does his damage in 2nd and 3rd rounds and had a pair of choices in both. Running backs Shane Vereen from California and LSU’s Stevan Ridley bring complimentary skills and add to an area of need. Mallett was projected to many teams, but not necessarily the Patriots. Mallett could learn from the best, or eventually traded, much like they did with Matt Cassel. With so many selections, New England had the luxury to take a chance on TCU offensive lineman Marcus Cannon. The largest quality lineman in the draft at 6’5″ 360 pounds, Cannon was diagnosed with Non-Hodgkins Lymphoma. Cannon is a risk to some extent, but is expected to fully recover.

The New York Jets focused their efforts early on their defensive line. Temple defensive end Muhammad Wilkerson is a stout run stopper and figures to compete at left end. At 6’4″ 315, Wilkerson also has pass rushing skills, setting him apart from other 3-4 college ends. The Jets went even bigger in the 2nd round with Hampton nose tackle Kenrick Ellis. At 6’5″ 350, Ellis not only plugs the middle, but gets a nice push on passing downs. Like Wilkerson, Ellis has run stopping size, but versatility and the ability to rush the passer. Louisville’s Bilal Powell is a solid inside runner and effective pass blocker. The Jets are stacked at running back so the 4th round pick may have to beat out Joe McKnight to stick. Staying with tradition, the Jets took an Alabama quarterback that wore the number 12. Yes, Greg McElroy, the Wonderlic champion, follows in the footsteps of Richard Todd and Joe Namath.

The Miami Dolphins were without several mid-round selections, but were solid at the top of the draft. Center Mike Pouncey out of Florida, looks to follow in his twin brother’s footsteps. Brother Maurkice turned out to be a gem for the Steelers, landing in the Pro Bowl. The ‘phins have already named Pouncey as their starting center. Miami was thought to be looking quarterback in the draft, however they failed to select a signal caller. Running back also appears to be in flux, as its unknown if either Ricky Williams or Ronnie Brown will be brought back. As insurance, the Dolphins took Kansas State’s Daniel Thomas in the 2nd round. A big back with great feet, Thomas has a chance to be the starter in week one.

Our draft reviews resume on Monday with the AFC North