Is Drafting Gio Gonzalez Safe?

After bouncing around from a couple of organizations, Gio Gonzalez has finally found his home with Oakland but can he continue his success from the 2010 season?

Analysis: Gio Gonzalez is definitely a mixed bag, especially in roto leagues. His bread and butter is of course his strikeouts. Gonzalez struck out 171 batters in 200 innings last year and if his minor league numbers are any indicator he should be right around 9K/9 this year. You also have to love his durability. He started 33 games last year with Oakland and started a combined 29 games between the bigs and Triple A in 2009. He does walk batters entirely too much and that does kill his WHIP. He sports a career 4.67BB/9 and his 4.13BB/9 last year was second in MLB among qualified pitchers. Gio’s ERA minues FIP was -.55 which was good for 18th among luckiest pitchers in baseball last year. His ERA was well below what it should have been and it should stay around four for the 2011 season.

Projection: Although Gonzalez pitches in a friendly park his ratios this year are due to bump up. Expect 13 wins, 190 strikeouts, 3.95 ERA with a 1.36 WHIP. If you are drafting Gonzalez as a top 45-50 pitcher and expect him to repeat his win total and ERA from last year you are mistaken. His walk rate is very concerning and his tenth best LOB rate of 78.1% last year will surely take a hit and directly affect his ERA.

College Football: A dozen unanswered questions

College football fans get a brief respite this month with spring practice across the nation. College football popularity in America trails only the NFL, and with the labor strife in the pro ranks, guess what may move to #1. Many questions face elite teams as they move towards the 2011 season, FantasySP takes a look at some of them, in no particular order.

Lots of change at Alabama– The most high profile story will be the battle to replace departed quarterback Greg McElroy. A.J. McCarron with the edge over Phillip Simms, two very highly recruited signal callers. Trent Richardson should step in to replace Mark Ingram, but fellow early departees Julio Jones and Marcel Dareus will be much harder shoes to fill. Anything short of a national championship will be considered failure in Tuscaloosa.

Will Notre Dame make another step towards a return to the elite?- The Fighting Irish got off to a very bad start with All American receiver Michael Floyd suspended from the team indefinitely for a violation of team rules. Quarterback Dayne Crist returns from injury and should recapture the starting job from sophomore Tommy Rees who was a pleasant surprise. Notre Dame’s incoming defensive line prospects may be the most touted in school history (and much needed).

Will Stanford’s Luck continue without Harbaugh?- Cardinal quarterback Andrew Luck surprised many by putting  the NFL on hold, despite being the probable #1 overall pick. Can Stanford continue the upward tick without the relentless Jim Harbaugh? Protection of Luck will be a huge factor as most of the offensive line must be replaced. The offense will remain balanced with  junior running back Stephan Taylor, the real deal. The Cardinal beat down of Virginia Tech in the Orange Bowl was the best performance of any team in the post season.

Will USC rebound before sanctions finally hit?- Lane Kiffin is stockpiling, bracing for the inevitable scholarship limitations to hit. Eight early enrollees and  another consensus top 5 class will help ease the pain. Junior Matt Barkley returns for a third season starting at quarterback and can  keep the Trojans in any game. If Southern Cal is to win though, major improvements must come on the defensive side of the ball where they have been traditionally dominant.

Can Ohio State survive early schedule without Tressel and Pryor?- With Terrelle Pyor suspended for the first five games, true freshman Braxton Miller will get a crash course to prepare. With Miami(Fl) and Michigan State the only true challenges in those first five weeks, the real question will be how the Buckeyes perform without sweater vest. Pryor isn’t the only skill player that will sit out, running back Dan (Boom) Herron and receiver DeVier Posey will also be absent on game day. The good news, Tressel and the suspended players will be able to participate in all activities, including practice, during the suspension.

Michgan returns to smash mouth with Rich Rod finally gone?- The long anticipated firing of Rich Rodriguez mercifully came to fruition in January. The Wolverines wanted Jim Harbaugh to come home, but settled for Brady Hoke. With Michigan promising a return to smash mouth, what does that mean for quarterback Denard Robinson? Embattled defensive coordinator Greg Robinson is also gone, replaced by former Baltimore Ravens assistant Greg Mattison. With nine starters returning on  offense, fixing the porous defense will be the key to the  Wolverines return to respectability.

Urban Meyer gone (again) will Muschamp bring Gators back?- Urban Meyer is gone again, supposedly to spend more time with his family. I guess his family has moved from Gainesville to Bristol, Connecticut because that’s where the legend has been spending his time. Will Muschamp steps in, abandoning the coach in waiting  position in Austin. The Tebow offense is gone thanks to new coordinator Charlie Weis. Good news for John Brantley, not so good for Trey Burton and Jordan Reed. Corner Janoris Jenkins reversing his decision to leave early was huge for the Gators defense. Jeff Driskel will get his feet wet as the eventual (2012) replacement for Brantley under center.

Can Oregon return to title game?- Believe it or not, the Ducks could be even betteron offense in 2011. Quarterback Darron Thomas returns, as do running backs LaMichael James and Kenjon Barner. If that’s not enough, red shirt freshman Lache Seastrunk and true freshman De’Athony (Black Mamba) Thomas debut. The nation’s top kick returner, Cliff Harris, returns and should have plenty of competition from a bevy of elite athletes. The Ducks have lots of work to do replacing lineman on both sides of the ball, but expect Oregon to light up the scoreboard again this season.

How far will Auburn fall with so many players lost?- Never before has a national championship team had to replace so many players. In fact, Auburn has fewer starters returning than anyteam in Division 1. Not only did Auburn lose its largest senior class in school history, but Cam Newton, Nick Fairley and Darvin Adams departed early for the NFL.  But there’s more, Auburn loses five players to disciplinary reasons. When its all said and done, nearly forty percent of the entire 2010 roster is gone. The Tigers get Florida and Alabama at home, but have a brutal road schedule, @ Clemson, @Arkansas, @ LSU, @ Georgia and @ South Carolina.

Were the 2010 Longhorns an abberation?- Wow, what a disaster 2010 brought University of Texas football. Arguably the most consistently elite team in college football, the Longhorns were embarrassing last season. Coach in waiting Will Muschamp is gone, along four other assistants. After getting a rude initiation in the 2009 national title game, all indications were the beginning of a long career for quaterback Garrett Gilbert. Not so fast my friend! We’re told the position is an open battle, with a group of candidates, including Colt’s little brother Case McCoy. The good news?  A huge contract with ESPN for the Longhorn network, Texas sports 24-7!

Is this the last season for Joe Paterno in Happy Valley?- Joe Paw returns to guide Penn State in the final season of his currrent contact, even so, he has given no indication of a retirement date. This is bad news for the NittanyLions as his uncertain future continues to hamper recruiting. Why? Recruits want to know the coach that brings them in will be there for their entire stay. That’s a question that nobody, including Coach Paterno can answer.  There are many other questions, the most pressing remaining at quarterback. Running back Evan Royster is off to the NFL and although he struggled at best in 2010, he had been a consistent source of offense since his freshman year.

Is Florida State about to come all the way back?- We are now a year removed from Bobby Bowden’s unceremonious removal from the Seminole sidelines. The ‘Noles showed improvement under former coach in waiting Jimbo Fisher, but fell flat against Virginia Tech in the ACC title game. Quarterback Christian Ponder is turning pro and FSU is hoping long time prospect E.J.Manuel can step up. Offensive line and safety are the only positions that stand in the way of Florida State representing the Atlantic Coast Conference in the Orange Bowl. An absolute stud 2011 recruiting class should help them arrive.

Time To Drop Justin Williams

Kings’ winger Justin Williams will be out up to four weeks with a dislocated right shoulder.

Analysis: This news means Justin Williams will be out for the remainder of the regular season and thus needs to be dropped from your fantasy team immediately. Williams is the Kings best winger and was having the second best season of his career with 57 points in just 73 games. Obviously in keeper leagues he’s fine to roll with next year but losing nearly a point per game player who is a plus 14 on the year with over 200 shots on goal hurts and hurts bad. There aren’t too many right wingers widely available in most leagues but there are a few solid options. St. Louis right winger Matt D’Agostini has four goals and five assists in his last six games and is a plus seven in that stretch. D’Agostini is your clear choice for plus/minus and for assists. Nashville’s Martin Erat has five goals and six assists with 28 shots on goal in his last nine games. If you’re in the market for some penalty minutes then Edmonton’s Ryan Jones just may fit the bill. Jones has amassed 13 penalty minutes in his last six games with a very respectable 15 shots on goal in that span. The loss of Justin Williams hurts but there are some right wingers playing very well on the market.

Bartolo Colon a Virtual Shoe-In For Yankees Rotation

After coming into camp as a longshot on a Minor League deal, the former Cy Young Award winner has dominated this spring.

Analysis: Last night’s outing against the Rays most likely sealed the deal in the competition for the Yankees fifth starter job, a position that has come down to a dogfight with fellow veteran Freddy Garcia. It appears that young Ivan Nova has the fourth spot locked up, so the two are battling it out for the last job available. Retiring 18 of the 20 batters faced yesterday, Colon looked outstanding while racking up five strikeouts over six innings. Many of his 64 pitches thrown, 52 for strikes, were clocked in the 91-93 MPH range with a bevy of impressive changeups and cutters mixed in. Nobody is expecting Colon to return to his All-Star form, but so far his command and overall stuff has caused the Yankees brass to reminisce on the past. A 2.40 ERA to go along with 17 strikeouts and only 1 walk over 15 innings will do that.

Projection: Colon’s performance over the past two weeks has been surprising to most, including myself. You cannot argue with the results, however, and he has earned a coveted spot in the Yankees rotation. Garcia’s recent struggles have only cemented this projection even further. Although both could essentially wind up on the Opening Day roster, Garcia’s spot would be as a long man at best. Barring an injury between now and then, bet on Bartolo Colon starting every fifth day for the Yankees. The chances of him staying healthy for the entire season are somewhat slim, though, so he isn’t worth picking up too early. As a late round sleeper, however, Colon could prove to be a very valuable acquisition for your Fantasy squad during the early months of 2011.

Lets not forget the NIT

For those of you that are unaware, the National Invitational Tournament (NIT) used to be the post season event for college basketball. The NIT has both pre and post season events. The pre-season NIT takes place in November and features some of the elite teams tipping off a new season. The post season event now features a mixture of those that don’t get invited to the Big Dance. A major difference in this event is that all games leading up to  the Final Four are held on campuses of participating teams. The final four is always held at Madison Square Garden in New York City. OK, lesson over, you may now impress your  friends with the details.

NIT teams enter with different frames of mind. Some are happy to be there with any post season play considered a success, while others come in flat, disappointed and feeling disrespeted by the NCAA selection committee. Much like bowl games in college football, an extension of the season can be a good chance to take a look at young players and/or potential new starters for next season.

This years tournament featured two teams that many felt deserved to be in the Big Dance, Virginia Tech and Colorado. Hokie fans targeted Virginia Commonwealth as a team that was less deserving a spot, and let it be known. Top seeded Tech was an easy winner over Bethune Cookman in the opening round, but were shock(ers)ed by Wichita State in round two. We all know how VCU has capitalized on its chance. More on the Colorado Buffaloes in a bit.

I’ll take this opportunity to note an omission in the NIT field. For the first time in 18 seasons the University of Maryland Terrapins are not participating in a post season tournament. With future Hall of Fame coach Gary Williams and an elite facility in the Comcast Center, the Terps should have easily been part of the 32 team field.  Why was Maryland left out? It was simply a numbers game. The NIT took 14 conference champions that were left out, up from eight a year ago. Even so, having a coach approaching 700 career wins and a recent National Champion, is all the reason to include Maryland. The Terps had narrow losses this season to tournament teams like Pittsburgh, Illinois, Temple, Villanova, UNC and Duke twice, including the ACC tournament. Just a few short weeks ago, the Terps pounded Sweet Sixteen member Florida State. With 19 wins, including tournament types in Penn State and Clemson, Maryland is a “name” program that the NIT needed to stay on the basketball “radar”. The Terps will be back, in the big Dance, next season, write it down!

The NIT 32 team field has been narrowed down to the quarterfinals, which begin tonight. (all times EST)

Tonight (Tuesday)

#7 Kent State @ #1 Colorado (ESPN @ 9pm)- The top seeded Buffaloes were shocked to be left out when tournament pairings were announced two Sunday’s ago. Colorado defeated Missouri, Texas and Kansas State three times this season. CU is led by Alec Burks, one of the top guards in the nation that many haven’t seen. The Buffs have made the most of their predicament and  should advance to the semifinals easily with a win over Kent State at the Coors Events Center.

Tomorrow (Wednesday)

#6 College of Charleston @ #4 Wichita State(ESPN2 @7pm)- One of my favorite all-time coaches in this one, Bobby Cremins. The Cougars are a gem of a program, nestled away in beautiful, historic Charleston. Cougar guard Andrew Goudelock may be the best player in the history of the program. CoC will have a battle on its hands in Wichita as the Shockers looked good in the upset of Virginia Tech.

#2 Miami(FL) @ #1 Alabama(ESPN2 @9pm)- Two elite programs out to prove they belonged with the big boys. Bama was a ‘bubble” team for what seemed like months after a weak non conference  schedule. Many in the program could not believe they were passed over by rival Georgia. Keep an eye on Alabama big man JaMychal Green, one of the best in the country. The U is another example of what may turn out to be the underrated Atlantic Coast Conference.

#4 Northwestern @ #2 Washington State (ESPN2 @ 11pm)- The Wildcats upset top seed Boston College to get here. Northwestern closed strong taking #1 Ohio State to overtime in the Big 10 tournament. Washington State has held serve and was impressive in 2nd round match win over Oklahoma State. The Cougars feature the Pac-10’s leading scorer, guard Klay Thompson.

Tuesday (March 29th)
Final Four (ESPN2 @ 7 & 9pm)

Thursday (March 31st)
Championship (ESPN2 @ 7pm)