March Madness: Inside look

Random thoughts….. Has Gus Johnson announced every game so far? Seems like it…. I absolutely loved having the option to watch any game, all of it,  without someone else controlling my remote!  The live look-in’s are fine, but just like any other game in another other sport, once it starts, I want the option to watch it in its entirety- success. Despite some negative reviews, I enjoyed the First Four. The 64 vs 65 play-in game of recent years was a faliure, now we get some meat with those “last four in” majors going head to head.

Lets take a look at the winners. Obviously Richmond with two teams in the sweet 16 is in heaven. 11 seed VCU has roared to the Sweet Sixteen with convincing wins over USC, Georgetown and Purdue, no easy task. #12 Richmond also impressive, shocking Louisville out of the gate, then beating sleeper favorite Moorehead State. The ACC is also holding its head high this week After a “down” season, three of the four are still alive in Duke, North Carolina and Florida State.  The Seminoles very impressive in the upset of #2 Notre Dame.  Hats off to the Mountain West, #2 San Diego State and #3 BYU very much alive to keep run going. Lastly, Butler, last season’s Cinderella is at it again. The Bulldogs surviving last second wins against both Old Dominion and #1 Pittsburgh.

We need to start in the Big East when discussing the losers thus far. Yes, the city of Richmond  has as many teams left as the mighty Big East. Eleven teams began the tournament, the lowest seed of them all, Marquette, is still alive. Some credit must be given I assume to #3 Syracuse and Cincinnati who fell to conference mates. Expectations were not high for the Pac-1012, but they are very fortunate that Arizona survives for another day. The Big 12 can’t feel good about things, #1 seed Kansas has advanced, but lets face it, their path is nowhere near what teams face in the East Regional.

While I don’t believe player performance in post season play can severely cripple value, it certainly can be enhanced. Example, Butler forward Gordon Hayward a year ago. Drafted in the 1st round by Utah, not a chance that happens without Butler’s run to the title game. Arizona forward Derek Williams’ stock continues to sky rocket. An athletic, versatile power forward, Williams has added an effective perimeter game and would be worthy  of the #1 overall pick. Duke guard Kyrie Irving gambled a bit by returning from injury, if he helps the Blue Devils to Houston, he could also  be #1 overall. Two mid major stars BYU’s Jimmer Fredette and San Diego State’s Kawhi Leonard are also on the rise due to strong play against major competition. One player who could have improved his draft stock was Notre Dame guard Ben Hansbrough.  Projected as a late 2nd round pick at best, The Big East player off the year could have enhanced his status, but the Irish 2nd round defeat didn’t help.

Sweet 16 on the tube

Thursday–

715pm San Diego State vs Connecticut (CBS)

727pm Florida vs Brigham Young (TBS)

945pm Duke vs Arizona (CBS)

957pm Wisconsin vs Butler (TBS)

Friday-

715pm UNC vs Syracuse (CBS)

727pm Kansas vs Richmond (TBS)

945pm Ohio St vs Kentucky (CBS)

957pm Florida St vs VCU (TBS)

Rajon Rondo is Not Playing Up to His Potential

Rajon Rondo started the year off hot, putting up ridiculous assist numbers, but he’s struggled a lot recently and kills you in a lot of fantasy categories.

Analysis: Rondo was so terrific early in the season that any of his misgivings were completely offset by how good he was at everything else. Now with Rondo playing poorly, and not even putting up the assist or steal numbers we’ve grown accustomed to, his weaknesses are just that much more glaring. On the season Rondo is shooting 49% from the field, which is great for a point guard, but in his last 10 games Rondo has only shot 36% from the field. When you combine that with his notoriously bad FT% you have a player that is absolutely killing your percentage categories. Rondo is averaging a little over 8 assists a game, which is a respectable number for most guards, but not Rondo. I believe that given his talent, and the talent on his roster their is no reason for him not to average over 12 assists a game. He’s averaging close to that with 11.5 assists per game on the season. Rondo’s small points totals are also down in this recent stretch, going from 13 a game on the season to 7 a game in his last 10.

Projection: Rondo is not helping your fantasy team right now. Consider benching him until he gets back in the groove. It seems like losing Perkins had more of an effect on Rondo than anyone could have anticipated. If Rondo isn’t dishing out crazy assist numbers and stealing balls left, right, and center, than he is a lousy fantasy option.

Alex Ovechkin Out With Undisclosed Injury

Alex Ovechkin is out seven to ten days with an undisclosed injury.

Analysis: Caps coach Bruce Boudreau has stated Ovechkin has been playing with this injury for months. While I do not believe the injury to be serious at all, it’s probably just cumulative fatigue and soreness associated with the grueling schedule and physicality of the NHL. The Caps goal is the Stanley Cup and it has been since day one and it can be evidenced by the defensive nature of Washington’s play much to the detriment of Ovechkin’s numbers this year. This is an extremely wise decision on Washington’s part but it really has to sting your fantasy squad. Seven to ten days puts Ovechkin out for four to five out of the Caps remaining nine games. Also, be aware of the possibility that he could sit until some time in early April when he is completely fresh as the Caps last game is April 9th at Florida.

Projection: You cannot drop Ovechkin, that’s fairly obvious. But you can drop a bench player in you’re in need of a left winger. If Andy McDonald of the Blues is available in your league he is a must pick up.  If he isn’t available, Vinny Prospal of the Rangers is still playing extremely well.

March Madness: Sweet 16

Wow, surprise, surprise, surprise!  Six of the top 16 seeds fail to make it to week two including a #1 in Pittsburgh and a #2 Notre Dame, both from the Big East. We also have three double digit seeds in the Sweet 16, Virginia Commonwealth, Richmond and Marquette.

My own bracket took a major hit early with Louisville going down, I still had a chance to compete until my “sleeper” Kansas State lost and it all came crashing down when my title selection from Syracuse tumbled.

East Regional:

Ohio State vs Kentucky– Can anyone stop the Buckeyes? So far, the strategy has been to sag and prevent Jared Sullinger and Dallas Lauderdale from killing you in the paint…. fail.  Jon Diebler has been deadly from long range, and if you pay too much attention to him, William Buford puts on a show. The Wildcats looked good in the win over West Virginia, but I don’t see anyone stopping the Buckeye express.

Marquette vs UNC – Marquette shocked #3 Syracuse in one of many Big East battles across the tournament. The Golden Eagles will have to stay hot from the perimeter to compete. The Tar Heels will try to lure them into a run and gun affair, with Harrison Barnes leading the way. Freshman  point Kendall Marshall will be tasked with keeping bigs Tyler Zeller and John Henson involved. UNC survives another close one.

West Regional:

Connecticut vs San Diego State– The Huskies survived a Big East rematch with Cincinnati, U Conn’s 7th game in 12 days!  Kemba Walker seems possessed and committed to get U Conn to Houston, but the key may be big Alex Oriakhi in the paint.  The Aztecs survived a marathon with Temple and will rely on superstar Kawhi Leonard. Playing in SoCal will help SD State, but may not be enough.

Duke v Arizona – Can the Blue Devils repeat? The chances almost ended in the narrow win over Michigan. Super Frosh Kyrie Irving hit the biggest shot of the game, his only points from the floor. I am really beginning to like the Wildcats, especially big time forward Derek Williams. Williams converted a three point play in Arizona’s miraculous last second comeback over Texas. In the end though, Duke is too balanced and too deep.

Southwest Regional:

Kansas vs Richmond– The Morris and Morris show continues, twins Marcus and Markieff with far too much for the Illini.  The Jayhawks can shoot and rebound and continued focus will land them in the Final Four. The Spiders will again be a heavy underdog, a roll they cherish. Richmond will need to shoot lights out from three point land to keep it close.

VCU vs Florida State– The Rams and Seminoles arrive in San Antonio after upset second round victories. VCU pounded heavily favored Purdue while FSU surprised #2 seed Notre Dame. The Seminoles are extremely athletic and defensive minded, and if they shoot like they did against the Fighting Irish, nobody may beat them.

Southeast Regional:

Butler vs Wisconsin – What can you say about the end of that Butler-Pittsburgh game? The Bulldogs gave the game away only to have the Panthers give it back, all in the last two seconds. Butler’s spiritual leaders is Matt Howard while their ultimate success lies with the shooting of Shelvin  Mack.  The Badgers held off Kansas State and are hard to figure. I gotta go with Butler to grind it out.

BYU vs Florida – What’s not to like about Jimmer Fredette? In my mind, the most entertaining player in the college game. The Cougars absolutely blew out a solid Gonzaga team.  At some point the loss of Brandon Davies’ banging underneath will be felt, this may be the game.  The Gators may be the hottest team around down the stretch and their front line will be too imposing to overcome.

Play resumes on Thursday and Friday, the Elite eight over the weekend, then on to the Final Four!

The Very Overrated Austin Jackson

We all know how inflated Austin  Jackson’s batting average was last year but his lack of plate discipline should really concern you.

Analysis: Austin Jackson’s league leading .396 BABIP was the only reason he flirted with hitting .300 last year. In reality, Jackson is a .280-.285 hitter when considering the facts. Jackson’s BABIP will take at least a ten point hit in 2011, .396 is just unsustainable. Jackson’s 27.5% strikeout rate is cause for concern as well and looks like it’s here to stay. His Double A and Triple A K-rates averaged about 23% and he was hitting for more power. Coming in to last year there were some scouts talking about his power potential and how a 10-12 home run year was realistic. His home run total last year was 4 and his ISO was .107, to put that into perspective that’s Orlando Husdon and Starlin Castro’s ISO range. The most telling stat has to be Jackson’s .28 BB/K line which was sixth worst in MLB last year. It’s fine to have a leadoff hitter without power but one that strikes out like a power hitter and cannot draw a walk is very concerning, especially to stolen base and run totals.

Projection: Jackson is good for what he did last year minus a few batting average points and some runs. However, guys like Jose Tabata, Cameron Maybin and Dexter Fowler ALL have the potential to put up similar numbers and you can get them many rounds later in your fantasy draft.