Overvalued- Jordan Zimmermann

Jordan Zimmermann is being drafted as a solid SP2 this year but the sabermetrics say otherwise.

Analysis: Jordan Zimmermann is the 20th starting pitcher being taken in drafts. The twenty-six year old has put together two solid seasons in a row but there are causes for concern. Zimmermann’s stand rate in 2012 was 79.3% which was the fifth best in baseball last year. His career average sits at 74.7%. Zimmermann did post a 2.94 ERA last year but if we take a look at his xFIP of 3.78 we clearly see there should be a regression this year.

Jordan Zimmermann will put up good numbers in 2013 but wasting such a high pick on him doesn’t make sense. He’s not a high strikeout guy and his ERA should not be below 3.50. He is primarily a two pitch pitcher and if he struggles to locate his fastball or slider he gets roughed up. There are plenty of better options later in the draft for you but if you have already drafted it may be time to sell before the fantasy world realizes that you have a SP3 on your hands.

Undervalued- Michael Morse

Michael Morse isn’t getting much love this year from fantasy owners. Keep in mind that the fences at Safeco Field are significantly closer this year and the left field wall is shorter.

Analysis: Michael Morse’s average draft position in the 150-160 range is fine if he plays in 120 games but if he stays healthy he will easily outperform it. Morse has played in 248 games over the past two years but he does have 49 home runs during that span. All Morse needs to do this year is stay healthy. He’s back in the American League which is always a plus for a guy like Morse who can DH in addition to playing the outfield and first base. Let us not underestimate the Seattle offense this year. Kendrys Morales, Kyle Seager and Justin Smoak can mash, Jesus Montero should finally tap into his potential and Dustin Ackley is poised for a break-out year.

The biggest problem I have with Morse’s fantasy value is that a few surprising outfielders are being taken ahead of him. Alejandro De Aza(28 years old) has never hit 10 home runs in a season nor has he stolen more than 26 bags. Torii Hunter is 37 years old and coming off of a 16 homer year in 140 games played. Hunter’s .389 BABIP in 2012 was 82 points above his career average… expect a huge dip in his batting average.

 

Overvalued- Edwin Encarnacion

Edwin Encarnacion is coming off of a 42 home run, 110 RBI year but can he sustain his recent success?

Analysis: Toronto is much improved but the stats don’t support Edwin Encarnacion meeting or exceeding his ADP. Encarnacion’s HR/FB rate last year was 18.7%, 5.6% above his career average. He’s thirty years old now so we know what we are getting for the most part and another forty homer year isn’t in the cards. Most respectable projections have him in the 26-33 home run range but don’t go expecting 40 again like some sites are predicting.

To his credit, Encarnacion’s walk rate went up last year and his BABIP kept his batting average lower than it should have been. Encarnacion swung at a career low 21% of pitches outside the strike zone last year according to PITCHf/x. Even with all these positives his average draft position sits in the 30-38 range which is entirely too high. There are plenty of “buy low” options this year at first base/DH. Ryan Howard(110 ADP) had 14 bombs in 71 games last year coming off of a major injury without a spring training.

Final Fantasy Assistant Updates to NBA this Season

Many of you are about to enter the playoffs in your NBA fantasy leagues.  I wanted to make sure you had the best experience possible come playoff time with the fantasy assistant.  A new category has been added: “Free Throw Percentage”.  All other category based waiver wire suggestions for the NBA have improved accuracy.

Best of luck in the playoffs!  And please do join a fantasy baseball league this summer!

Undervalued- Starling Marte

Starling Marte posted a .257 batting average with 5 home runs and 12 stolen bases in just 47 games with the Pirates last year.

Analysis: Marte’s tools are comparable to Cameron Maybin, Carlos Gomez and Desmond Jennings’ tools. He won’t be a high average guy and he strikes out a lot but he is a cheap power/speed roto option. Most projections have him hitting 13-15 HR with 25-30 SB this year while hitting in the .275 range(ESPN- 9 HR/18 SB). His batting average may dip into BJ Upton territory because of his low contact rate but he will steal 30 bags this year if he plays in 145 games.

Marte is the 64th outfielder being taken in ESPN leagues at the moment. Considering Desmond Jennings is being taken as the 21st outfielder and Cameron Maybin the 56th, there is quite a bit of value drafting Marte over those guys. If he is to reach his projections this year he will have to walk at a higher clip so watch him closely early on. Marte should stay with the Pirates all year even if he does struggle at the plate because his fielding is Gold Glove caliber.